There doesn’t seem to be any end in sight for Australia’s trade skills crisis as the federal government ramps up efforts to push more school leavers into university programs.
The Albanese government’s ambitious plans for higher education, outlined in the Australian Universities Accord Final Report earlier this year, aim to significantly increase tertiary education rates across Australia.
By 2050, the government expects 80 per cent of the workforce to hold a tertiary qualification, up from the current 60 per cent. This push also includes raising the proportion of 25-to-34-year-olds with university-level qualifications from 45 per cent to 55 per cent.
In addition to boosting university attainment, the government has set a goal of increasing the percentage of young adults with vocational or technical qualifications to 40 per cent by 2050.
Achieving these goals would require doubling Commonwealth-supported university enrollments from 860,000 to 1.8 million by 2050.
However, critics argue the focus on university degrees comes at the expense of trade apprenticeships, deepening the shortage of skilled workers across essential industries.
Tradie shortages reach boiling point
Groups like the National Australian Apprenticeship Association (NAAA) have voiced strong concerns about the government’s strategy, urging a shift in focus toward vocational pathways.
NAAA CEO Ben Bardon criticised the trend of funnelling students into university, often into courses they struggle to complete, calling it a waste of talent.
“The period of uncapped places at university, and expanding the number of people going to university, has seen a much higher dropout rate (from degree courses)”, he said.
“The dropout rate for these cohorts, particularly where the individual student has an ATAR score below 75, is roughly double the average university dropout rate’’.
Bardon also highlighted a “substitution effect,” where potential apprentices are lured into universities, only to drop out and leave critical trade positions unfilled.
Master Builders Australia CEO Denita Wawn echoed these concerns, noting that a cultural bias favouring university education has been entrenched since the 1970s.
“Despite a sizeable workforce of over 1.35 million people, the industry is facing acute shortages with an annual exit rate of 8 per cent, of which we are currently only replacing half of that rate,” she said.
“For decades, we have seen the cultural erosion of trade apprenticeships with students being pushed towards the university system.
“Apprentices are paid to learn, unlike their higher education counterparts who pay to learn.”
Finding a balance
Economist Judith Sloan, writing for The Australian, also questioned whether a cultural studies degree is inherently more valuable than the practical skills of a plumber or electrician.
“Is someone with a bachelor of arts in cultural studies really more qualified than a plumber?”, Sloan asked.
Ms Wawn warned that TAFE and vocational programs have already suffered, with public funding redirected to universities, leaving industries like construction, electrical work, and mechanics in dire need of skilled workers.
However, with its 55 per cent university attainment target looming large, the federal government would need to cut entry standards even further to recruit non-traditional university students, potentially pulling even more budding tradies into the higher education system to intensify shortages.
“It will take a concerted effort by governments, industry, schools and the broader community to turn this ship around,” she added.
“VET and higher education are both integral parts of Australia’s education system and should be viewed as such.”
